Summary
"How many panels do I need?" is the question every solar PV customer asks first, and giving a confident, wrong answer — or a vague "depends on the roof" without walking through the actual numbers — loses the quote to whichever installer does show the maths. The calculation isn't complicated, but it does need four real inputs specific to that property: the household's annual electricity consumption (or the portion of it the customer wants to offset), the roof's orientation and pitch, any shading, and the panel wattage being specified.
The output of a solar PV array depends on system size (measured in kWp — kilowatt-peak, the panels' rated output under standard test conditions) multiplied by the site's specific yield (how many kWh of real-world generation each kWp actually produces per year at that location, orientation, and pitch). Specific yield varies significantly across the UK — roughly 15-20% higher in the south of England than in Scotland for the same roof — and drops materially for anything other than a south-facing roof at an optimal pitch (roughly 30-40°), and drops further still with any shading from chimneys, trees, or neighbouring buildings.
The other number that matters and gets missed in casual conversations: self-consumption. A solar array sized to match annual consumption on paper does not mean the household uses all of that generation directly — most homes without a battery self-consume only 30-50% of solar generation (the rest is exported, currently paid via the Smart Export Guarantee), because generation peaks at midday when many households have lower demand. This affects the payback calculation and is worth explaining alongside the panel count itself.
Key Facts
- kWp (kilowatt-peak) — the panels' rated output under Standard Test Conditions (1000 W/m² irradiance, 25°C cell temperature) — the nameplate size of the system, not the real-world annual output
- Specific yield — the real-world annual generation per kWp installed, expressed as kWh/kWp/year; this is the number that converts system size into expected annual generation
- UK specific yield range (south-facing, 30-40° pitch, unshaded) — commonly cited industry range of roughly 850-1,050 kWh/kWp/year in southern England, falling to roughly 750-900 kWh/kWp/year in the north of England and Scotland —
- Orientation loss vs due south — east or west-facing roofs typically yield roughly 15-20% less than an equivalent south-facing roof; north-facing is generally not recommended for panel placement and can lose 40%+ versus south
- Pitch/tilt effect — 30-40° pitch is close to optimal for most of the UK; flatter roofs (below 15°) and steeper roofs (above 50°) both lose some yield versus optimal, though the loss is generally smaller than the loss from poor orientation
- Shading impact — even partial shading on part of an array can disproportionately reduce output on some panel/inverter configurations, because shaded cells can bottleneck a whole string; a shading assessment (and, where relevant, module-level optimisers or microinverters to mitigate string losses) should be part of every site survey
- Typical panel wattage (2026 domestic) — modern monocrystalline panels are commonly rated 400-440W per panel; panel physical size for this wattage range is typically around 1.7-1.9m x 1.1m (roughly 1.9-2.1m² per panel)
- Roof area per kWp — as a rough rule of thumb, allow approximately 4.5-5.5m² of usable roof area per kWp installed at current panel efficiencies, though this varies by specific panel model and mounting layout
- Average UK household electricity consumption — Ofgem's Typical Domestic Consumption Value (TDCV) for electricity is commonly cited around 2,700 kWh/year for a "medium" user, though actual households vary widely and this figure is periodically revised —
- EV charging addition — a typical EV doing around 7,000-8,000 miles/year at a reasonable efficiency adds roughly 1,800-2,200 kWh/year to household demand — a meaningful factor when sizing a system for a household planning or already running an EV
- Self-consumption without a battery — typically 30-50% of solar generation is used directly by the household without a battery, varying with occupancy patterns (a home empty during the day self-consumes less than one with someone home)
- Battery storage effect on self-consumption — adding battery storage can raise effective self-consumption to 60-80%+ depending on battery size relative to daily consumption and generation profile — see solar battery systems
- DNO notification thresholds — installations up to and including 16A per phase (roughly 3.68kW single-phase) can typically use the simplified G98 notification process; larger systems require G99 application and DNO approval before connection —
- MCS certification requirement — installation must be carried out by an MCS-certified installer, and the specific panel and inverter products must hold current MCS product certification, for the system to be eligible for the Smart Export Guarantee (SEG)
- Smart Export Guarantee (SEG) — pays households for electricity exported to the grid at a rate set by their chosen SEG licensee, replacing the closed Feed-in Tariff scheme; rates vary by supplier and are not fixed nationally —
Quick Reference Table
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Try squote free →| Orientation | Approx. yield relative to due south | Typical impact on panel count for same output |
|---|---|---|
| Due south, 30-40° pitch | 100% (baseline) | Baseline |
| South-east / south-west | ~90-95% | +5-10% more panels |
| Due east / due west | ~80-85% | +15-20% more panels |
| Flat roof (optimally angled mounts) | ~90-95% (mount-dependent) | +5-10% more panels |
| North-facing | ~60% or less | Generally not recommended for panel placement |
| Partial shading (moderate) | Highly variable, can be 10-30%+ loss | Site survey and optimiser/microinverter assessment required |
Detailed Guidance
The core sizing formula
Required kWp = Target annual demand (kWh) ÷ Site-specific yield (kWh/kWp/year)
Panel count = Required kWp ÷ Panel wattage (kW)
Always round the panel count up to the nearest whole panel, and check the resulting kWp against the roof's actual usable area (accounting for eaves clearance, obstructions like chimneys and roof windows, and any structural or fire-access setback requirements) before finalising a quote.
Worked example 1 — typical 3-bed semi, south-facing roof, no shading
A 3-bed semi in the South East with annual electricity consumption of 3,100 kWh/year (slightly above the Ofgem medium TDCV, reflecting typical modern appliance use), south-facing roof at 35° pitch, no shading.
- Site-specific yield assumption: 950 kWh/kWp/year (mid-range for a well-orientated South East England roof)
- Required kWp = 3,100 ÷ 950 = 3.26 kWp
- Using 400W panels: 3.26 ÷ 0.4 = 8.15, rounded up to 8 panels = 3.2 kWp installed
- Expected annual generation = 3.2 x 950 = 3,040 kWh/year, covering roughly the full annual demand on paper
- Without a battery, expect the household to directly self-consume roughly 35-45% of this generation (around 1,100-1,350 kWh/year), with the remainder exported via SEG — the system does not eliminate the electricity bill, it materially reduces it and generates export income
Worked example 2 — larger detached home, east/west roof split, planning for an EV
A 4-bed detached home with annual consumption of 4,200 kWh/year, planning to add an EV doing roughly 8,000 miles/year (add ~2,000 kWh/year), no south-facing roof face available — the property has an east-facing and a west-facing pitch of similar size, no significant shading.
- Total target demand = 4,200 + 2,000 = 6,200 kWh/year
- East/west specific yield assumption: 800 kWh/kWp/year (applying roughly an 18% orientation loss versus the south-facing baseline used in example 1, adjusted for a slightly more northern location)
- Required kWp = 6,200 ÷ 800 = 7.75 kWp
- Using 400W panels split across both roof faces: 7.75 ÷ 0.4 = 19.4, rounded up to 20 panels (10 on each pitch) = 8.0 kWp installed
- Expected annual generation = 8.0 x 800 = 6,400 kWh/year
- At this system size (above 3.68kW single-phase, depending on installation configuration), a G99 DNO application is likely required rather than the simplified G98 notification — factor DNO approval lead time into the project schedule, and confirm actual thresholds with the DNO before committing to an installation date
Worked example 3 — smaller bungalow with partial shading, targeting partial offset
A retired couple's bungalow with lower annual consumption of 2,400 kWh/year, south-facing roof at 30° pitch, but a mature tree causes shading on part of the array for a portion of the day, reducing effective yield by roughly 20% versus an unshaded equivalent roof. The customer's goal is to offset a meaningful proportion of consumption, not necessarily 100%, given budget constraints.
- Unshaded south yield assumption: 950 kWh/kWp/year; with 20% shading loss applied: 760 kWh/kWp/year effective
- Target: offset roughly 70% of annual demand = 2,400 x 0.7 = 1,680 kWh/year
- Required kWp = 1,680 ÷ 760 = 2.21 kWp
- Using 400W panels: 2.21 ÷ 0.4 = 5.5, rounded up to 6 panels = 2.4 kWp installed
- Expected annual generation = 2.4 x 760 = 1,824 kWh/year, roughly 76% of annual demand — slightly ahead of the 70% target, giving the customer a small buffer
- Given the shading, recommend a module-level optimiser or microinverter system rather than a basic string inverter, to prevent the shaded panels from disproportionately dragging down the output of the unshaded panels in the same string
Why the "just cover 100% of my bill" framing misleads customers
Sizing a system to generate the same number of kWh annually as the household consumes does not mean the household's electricity bill goes to zero, because generation and consumption rarely align in time — most solar generation happens in the middle of the day, while much household consumption happens morning and evening. Explaining self-consumption percentages and the role of battery storage or shifting usage (running appliances during generation hours) is part of setting an accurate expectation, not just a nice-to-have upsell conversation. See solar battery systems for battery sizing guidance relative to a given array size.
Roof area and structural checks
Before finalising a panel count, confirm the roof has enough contiguous usable area once eaves clearance, ridge clearance, roof windows, vents, and chimneys are accounted for — a roof that looks large enough on a satellite image can lose 20-30% of usable area to these obstructions. A structural assessment of the roof's condition and loading capacity (typically 10-25 kg/m² for a mounted PV array) should also be part of the survey, particularly on older roofs or those with a history of movement. See solar panel roofing for loading figures and fixing detail.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I always size the system to match 100% of annual consumption?
Not necessarily — this is a common default but not always the right answer. Roof area, budget, and the customer's appetite for export versus self-consumption should all factor in. A smaller system with strong self-consumption can sometimes deliver better financial payback than a larger system exporting a high proportion of its generation at a lower rate than the customer pays for imported electricity — model both scenarios where budget allows.
Does adding a battery change how many panels I need?
Not directly — panel count is driven by generation capacity, while battery size is driven by how much of that generation you want to store and use later rather than export. However, if the goal is to maximise self-sufficiency (minimise both import and export), sizing the panels and battery together as a system, rather than sizing panels alone and treating the battery as an afterthought, gives a better overall result. See solar battery systems for battery sizing methodology.
How much does shading really matter if it's only for an hour or two a day?
More than most customers expect, particularly with older string inverter systems where shading on even one panel in a string can reduce the output of the entire string, not just the shaded panel. A proper shading assessment (ideally using a tool like a Solar Pathfinder or software-based shading analysis during the site survey, not just a visual guess) should inform both the panel layout and the inverter/optimiser choice.
What panel wattage should I quote for if the customer hasn't specified a brand?
Use a realistic current-market panel wattage (400-440W is a reasonable working assumption at time of writing) for initial sizing conversations, but always finalise the actual panel count and array layout against the specific product being quoted, since wattage, physical dimensions, and efficiency vary between manufacturers and product ranges —.
Does this calculation apply the same way to flat roofs?
The same formula applies, but flat roofs need mounted frames set at an angle (typically 10-15° to balance yield against wind loading and self-shading between rows), and the spacing between rows to avoid rows shading each other reduces the effective panel density per m² of roof area compared to a pitched roof — factor this into the roof area assessment for flat-roof commercial or larger domestic installations.
Regulations & Standards
MCS 012 — MCS product certification requirements for solar photovoltaic (PV) modules
MIS 3002 — MCS installer standard covering the supply, design, installation, commissioning, and handover of solar PV microgeneration systems
BS EN 62446-1 (or successor IEC 62446-1) — grid-connected PV system requirements for testing, documentation, and inspection
G98/G99 — Energy Networks Association DNO connection standards for small-scale (G98) and larger (G99) embedded generation, including solar PV, governing notification and approval requirements before grid connection
BS 7671:2018+A2:2022 (IET Wiring Regulations) — Section 712 covers solar photovoltaic (PV) power supply systems specifically, including DC isolation and cabling requirements
Building Regulations Part A — structural loading requirements relevant to roof-mounted PV array assessment
Permitted Development rights (England) — solar panels on most domestic roofs fall under permitted development provided panel projection does not exceed a set limit (commonly cited as 200mm from the roof plane) and other siting conditions are met —
MCS Standards and installer search — Microgeneration Certification Scheme
Smart Export Guarantee guidance — Ofgem
PVGIS (Photovoltaic Geographical Information System) — European Commission Joint Research Centre, useful for site-specific yield estimation
MCS Solar PV installation standard guidance — Microgeneration Certification Scheme
solar pv — Solar PV fundamentals: panel types, string vs microinverters, DNO G99 notification, MCS certification
solar battery systems — Battery sizing, chemistry comparison, DC vs AC coupling, and self-consumption impact
solar panel roofing — Roof loading, fixing systems, and permitted development limits for solar panel installation
solar pv installation pricing guide — Solar PV installation pricing by system size, including inverter type and typical install duration